2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season (MG's realistic version)
The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season was overall above average. The season featured 14 tropical storms, with 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The season began exceptionally early on April 18, with the formation of Subtropical Storm Arlene, which would later become tropical. It ended on November 13, with Hurricane Nate. However, 2017 would become the first atlantic hurricane season to feature no storms in June since 2014. Despite multiple reliable forecasts called for a weak to moderate el nino event, the el nino failed to materialize until after the season ended. However, the beginning of the el nino in October produced less favorable conditions in the last two months of the season. The season featured many significant storms. Arlene and Bret formed before the season officially began on June 1. In July, Hurricane Don caused moderate damage across the Caribbean and United States, but gained massive media attention due to the name's similarity to then-president Donald Trump. In August, Hurricane Franklin caused moderate damages in the Bahamas and threatened to strike North Carolina, but it stayed offshore. In September, Hurricane Lee became the first major hurricane to strike the United States since Hurricane Wilma in 2005, and caused severe damage throughout its path. In November, Hurricane Nate dropped heavy rain in Haiti, which was still recovering from Hurricane Matthew of the previous year. Timeline ImageSize = width:780 height:240 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/04/2016 till:01/12/2016 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/04/2016 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_≤39_mph_(≤62_km/h) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39–73_mph_(63–117_km/h) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74–95_mph_(118–153_km/h) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96–110_mph_(154–177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111–129_mph_(178–208_km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_130–156_mph_(209–251_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_≥157_mph_(≥252_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:10 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:18/04/2016 till:21/04/2016 color:TS text:"Arlene (TS)" from:20/05/2016 till:23/05/2016 color:TS text:"Bret (TS)" from:07/07/2016 till:11/07/2016 color:TS text:"Cindy (TS)" from:10/07/2016 till:18/07/2016 color:C2 text:"Don (C2)" from:21/07/2016 till:25/07/2016 color:TS text:"Emily (TS)" from:05/08/2016 till:12/08/2016 color:C3 text:"Franklin (C3)" from:15/08/2016 till:19/08/2016 color:C1 text:"Gert (C1)" from:15/08/2016 till:20/08/2016 color:TS text:"Harvey (TS)" from:17/08/2016 till:19/08/2016 color:TD text:"Nine (TD)" from:29/08/2016 till:03/09/2016 color:C1 text:"Irma (C1)" barset:break from:07/09/2016 till:15/09/2016 color:C4 text:"Jose (C4)" from:14/09/2016 till:17/09/2016 color:TS text:"Katia (TS)" from:23/09/2016 till:02/10/2016 color:C5 text:"Lee (C5)" from:13/10/2016 till:15/10/2016 color:TS text:"Maria (TS)" from:10/11/2016 till:13/11/2016 color:C1 text:"Nate (C1)" bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/04/2016 till:01/05/2016 text:April from:01/05/2016 till:01/06/2016 text:May from:01/06/2016 till:01/07/2016 text:June from:01/07/2016 till:01/08/2016 text:July from:01/08/2016 till:01/09/2016 text:August from:01/09/2016 till:01/10/2016 text:September from:01/10/2016 till:01/11/2016 text:October from:01/11/2016 till:01/12/2016 text:November TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:(618,30) text:"Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale)" Seasonal forecasts Storms Tropical Storm Arlene A cold front produced an extratropical cyclone in early April 2017. It slowly began to transition despite a lack of model support. It officially became a subtropical storm on April 18, but was not initially declared for another 24 hours. As it continued to transition, it weakened to a subtropical depression on April 19, and was at this point declared Subtropical Depression One. It was not forecast to intensity into a tropical storm, but it instead transitioned into a tropical depression as convection increased, and it intensified into Tropical Storm Arlene on April 20. Arlene moved in a counterclockwise circle around another area of low pressure for that day, before eventually becoming extratropical on April 21. Arlene's remnants would dance around the Atlantic for several more days. Tropical Storm Bret A large low pressure area in the Bahamas began to show signs of organization on May 18. The NHC monitored it for development. On May 20, Tropical Depression Two formed. It initially was not expected to intensify due to an unfavorable MJO shift, but a powerful burst of convection made the NHC declare Tropical Storm Bret. This made 2017 one of the few hurricane seasons to feature two pre-season storms. Bret was forecast to make landfall in South Carolina as a minimal tropical storm, and watches were raised, but Bret remained offshore. Bret abruptly began accelerating east on May 22. Bret entered an area of hostile conditions, and convection rapidly dissipated. The storm lost all tropical characteristics on May 23, and weakened to a well-defined area of low pressure. Tropical Storm Cindy A tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa on July 1, after an unfavorable June. The NHC monitored it for tropical development, noting some favorable conditions. The wave entered the Caribbean sea on July 3, with marginal conditions. The wave entered the western Caribbean and developed into Tropical Depression Three on July 7. It intensified into Tropical Storm Cindy 12 hours later, and it passed over Cuba as a minimal tropical storm, with minimal impacts. With favorable conditions in the Gulf of Mexico, Cindy was forecast to intensify into a hurricane. But the storm's center became exposed as it entered an area of higher wind shear. Cindy peaked with winds of 60 mph. Cindy made landfall on the Florida Panhandle at this intensity, on July 10. Cindy weakened inland, and became a remnant low on July 11, and moved over the eastern United States. Hurricane Don Main Article: Hurricane Don On July 5, a very impressive tropical wave exited the coast of Africa, the wave had unusually high amounts of convection, and was forecast to develop within 2 days. However, the wave did not have a closed circulation until July 10, when Tropical Storm Don was declared due to the wave already producing gale force winds. With very moist air, high sea surface temperatures, and lower wind shear, Don intensified into a hurricane on July 12, and passed through the lesser Antilles with a developing eye. Don reached an initial peak of 80 mph that day. Unexpected dry air in the Caribbean weakened Don below hurricane status on July 13, and it continued to the northwest. Don passed over Jamaica as a weakening 60 mph tropical storm, and was forecast to dissipate over Cuba. Conditions were significantly more favorable in the western Caribbean sea, however, and this prompted rapid intensification. Don rapidly began to circulate and developed a new eye. It was a hurricane again on July 15. That night, Don reached peak intensity, as a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Don made landfall on Cuba at this intensity, and weakened back to category 1 status shortly after. Don began to accelerate around Florida until it made landfall on the western side of the state with 85 mph winds. The storm continued northeast, briefly emerging over water one last time before striking South Carolina as a strong tropical storm. Don raced over the eastern seaboard, becoming extratropical on July 18. Despite the storm's path, damage peaked at only about $800 Million, and only 3 people died. However, the storm gained massive publicity on social media and the news, as the name was similar to the name of the infamous at-the-time U.S president Donald Trump. Tropical Storm Emily Main Article: Tropical Storm Emily (2017) A tropical wave exited the coast of Africa on July 14. It moved across the tropical Atlantic with little to no development. The wave was initially not monitored by the NHC, as it had inconsistent model support, and only one model developed it. The wave moved through the Lesser Antilles on July 18, and entered the Caribbean sea. Conditions were more favorable here, and the wave began to improve in presentation. The NHC, noting these conditions and model support, gave the wave a moderate development chance. Tropical Depression Five formed on July 21, fairly close to Nicaragua. The storm narrowly avoided landfall, but failed to intensify due to interaction. As it moved away from Nicaragua, it was able to intensify into Tropical Storm Emily, on July 22. Emily rapidly intensified to peak intensity, with 50 mph winds. It struck the Yucatan Peninsula at this intensity early on July 23. Emily was forecast to become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, but dry air got in the circulation, keeping the storm weaker. Emily moved northwest, and eventually made landfall in Texas on July 24, as a 45 mph tropical storm. Emily moved inland and weakened, and dissipated into a remnant low on July 25. The remnants would persist for another day. Hurricane Franklin Main Article: Hurricane Franklin (2017) On August 2, a tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa. The NHC quickly noted it for development, as models had developed it several days in advance. The wave remained ill-defined for a day or two, as moderate wind shear was in the area. On August 4, the wave exited the area of shear, and rapidly developed into Tropical Depression Six. Six hours later, it intensified into Tropical Storm Franklin. Initially set to threaten Florida, Franklin moved west. The storm made landfall in Puerto Rico, causing minimal damage. Franklin reached hurricane status on August 8, as an eye was notable on satellite. As Franklin moved further into the Bahamas, it began to rapidly intensify, becoming the first major hurricane of the year on August 9, the earliest first major in the Atlantic since Bertha in 2008. Franklin, still pounding the Bahamas, began to curve north in response to a low pressure area, and was forecast to make landfall in North Carolina, causing an evacuation. Franklin began to accelerate northeast, narrowly avoiding landfall. However, the western eyewall passed over the outer banks, resulting in moderate damage. As Franklin approached cooler waters, it weakened below hurricane status on August 11. Early the next day, Franklin made landfall on the Tiburon Peninsula in Newfoundland as a 60 mph tropical storm. Shortly after, it transitioned into an extratropical cyclone. Hurricane Gert A nontropical low entered an area of favorable conditions on August 14. It began to rapidly develop into a tropical cyclone. The NHC only had time to place one chance of development before it was a tropical cyclone early on August 15. It intensified into Gert later that day. Within this area of favorable conditions, it intensified into a hurricane on August 17. It peaked the next day, with winds of 85 mph. As Gert began to move northward, it entered an area of less favorable conditions, and began to weaken. Gert became an extratropical cyclone on August 19, and it later exited the Atlantic basin. Tropical Storm Harvey A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on August 12. It slowly moved west, becoming a depression on August 15. The next day, it intensified into Tropical Storm Harvey. Harvey was forecast to intensify into a hurricane initially, but after peaking with 50 mph winds, Harvey entered an area of less favorable conditions. The convection began to be displaced by stronger wind shear, but Harvey was forecast to re-intensify. Harvey did not re-intensify though, as the central structure collapsed, and Harvey dissipated into a remnant low on August 20. The remnants were forecast to re-develop in the Gulf of Mexico, but they did not. The remnants eventually merged with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine. Tropical Depression Nine The remnants of Pacific Hurricane Greg entered the Atlantic on August 14. The remnants slowly re-developed convection as they moved northeast. On August 17, the system had sufficient convection to be declared Tropical Depression Nine. It was forecast to intensify into a named storm, but failed to intensify before making landfall in Florida. The storm dissipated over Florida on August 19. The remnants entered the Atlantic on August 20, and merged with the remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey. However, regeneration did not occur. Hurricane Irma Tropical Storm Irma formed on August 29, from a tropical wave. It moved northwest, and hit an initial peak of 50 mph. Increasing shear around the storm caused it to weaken slightly, but it was able to re-intensify the next day. With an improving satellite picture and an eye developing, Irma reached hurricane status on September 1. It peaked 6 hours later with 80 mph winds. Shortly after, the eye dissipated under the convection as weakening commenced. It rapidly moved northeast, and made landfall in Newfoundland. Shortly after, it became extratropical and eventually impacted Greenland, but damage was minimal. Hurricane Jose A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on September 4, following the wave that later became Tropical Storm Katia. It entered the tropical Atlantic, developing into Tropical Depression Twelve. The next morning, it was declared Tropical Storm Jose. Situated in an area of favorable conditions, Jose gradually intensified into a hurricane on September 9. As it moved northwest, it began to intensify faster, as an eye became very visible on Satellite. Jose became a major hurricane on September 11, and peaked the next day, as a Category 4 storm with winds of 145 mph. It retained this intensity for 12 hours under increasing wind shear caused weakening. Jose accelerated into the open Atlantic, becoming extratropical on September 15. Tropical Storm Katia A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on September 3. When the wave entered the Atlantic, models forecast the storm to become a very intense hurricane in the Caribbean, a possible borderline Category 5. However, the storm's early development was impeded by the rapidly developing Tropical Storm Jose to the west, resulting in the wave being sheared. This went on for two more days until Jose curved north, and the wave went into the Caribbean on September 9. According to the NHC, the wave was very close to Depression status on September 11, and could have briefly been one, but dry air resulted in loss of organization. The wave entered the Bay of Campeche on September 13, and began to re-organize. It had sufficient organization to be declared a Depression on September 14, and it intensified into Tropical Storm Katia. The storm was very disorganized, with the center of circulation being partially exposed. Katia weakened to a depression that night, but re-intensified into a tropical storm the next day. Katia reached peak intensity on September 16, with 45 mph winds, and made landfall in Mexico. It dissipated inland on September 17. Hurricane Lee Main Article: Hurricane Lee A vigorous tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on September 18. Five days later, it developed into a tropical depression. It remained weak for quite some time, until it intensified into Tropical Storm Lee on September 24. It then entered the Caribbean. Within an area of low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures, it was able to rapidly intensify. After becoming a hurricane on September 26, Lee became a major hurricane the next day. Lee attained category 5 status on September 27, making 2017 the second year in a row with a category 5 hurricane. The forecast models were uncertain of the future of Lee. Lee underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, briefly weakening below Category 5 status on September 30. It became a C5 again for a short time the next day. Lee moved through the Yucatan passage, and entered the Gulf of Mexico. The storm weakened, due to increased wind shear in the area. Despite losing intensity, Lee made landfall in Terrebonne, Louisiana as a category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. This made Lee the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. Lee moved inland, and briefly managed to remain tropical in Lake Michigan, before becoming extratropical on October 2. Lee's remnants would later bring strong winds to Canada. Tropical Storm Maria A large area of low pressure situated in the Bahamas began to move northward on October 12. With an increase in convection and tropical characteristics, it developed into Tropical Storm Maria. Maria organized quickly, developing a primordial eye structure as it paralleled the east coast. on October 15, Maria attained peak intensity with 60 mph winds. Cooling SSTs began to weaken the storm after peak. Maria transitioned into an extratropical cyclone on October 15 and moved over Nova Scotia, causing scattered damage. Hurricane Nate Main Article: Hurricane Nate (2017) A large area of low pressure began to circulate in the Southern Caribbean. Moving slowly to the northeast, it became a Tropical Depression on November 10, and it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Nate 6 hours later. Within an area of favorable conditions, Nate quickly intensified, and developed an eye structure. Nate became a hurricane on November 11, and peaked with 75 mph winds. Soon after, land interaction with Haiti caused Nate to weaken, and it weaved between Haiti and Puerto Rico, and entered the open Atlantic. Nate became extratropical on November 13, and later contributed to a powerful wind storm that hit the UK and Ireland. Season Effects Storm Names The following list of names were used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2017. Retired names were announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2018. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2023 season. This is the same list used in the 2011 season, with the exception of the name Irma, which replaced Irene. The name Irma was used for the first time this year. Retirement During the WMO conference in April 2018, the names Don and Lee were retired, and will never be used for another Atlantic hurricane. The names Devon and Leonard were chosen to replace them in 2023. Category:Above-average seasons Category:VileMaster Category:Category 5 hurricanes Category:Interesting Category:Cool Seasons Category:2017 Atlantic Hurricane season Category:Atlantic hurricane seasons